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Интересная статейка попалась про телеком (+)



Написано FXoR | Thu, Sep 21 at 3:56pm:

HUGE ONE TIME $100+ BILLION TAX PAYMENT WEAKENS EUROPEAN MARKETS.
EURO TELCO'S RAISING $56 BILLION IN DEBT & $50 BILLION IN EQUITY TO PAY FOR 3G Licenses.
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Euro-land has started taking US cash back home as Telefonica raised $5 billion last week to start paying the
$100+ billion one time tax for the right to offer next generation wireless service in Europe. British Telecom is
scheduled to sell $10 billion of bonds this week. Next week it should be KDN, the Dutch Telecom selling $7
billion in debt, followed by the French and Italian Telco's selling a combined $15 billion of bonds. Add in the
$14 billion sold by DT this past summer and that totals $56 billion in license payment bonds being sold.
One source tells us that the same Telco's are planning to raise about $50 billion from the equity markets as
well this fall, although the actual sellers might be subsidiaries of the national telco's.
That $106 billion does not include an additional unknown billions to actually build out the systems. Since
the debt service on the $56 billion starts now, the rush to build out these systems to generate cash flow will be
intense. By the way, the biggest beneficiaries will be the Viking infrastructure providers -- Ericsson and Nokia.
The European telco's have to raise all that cash to pay for the 3G wireless licenses they "won" this past
summer. Those license fees in reality are a one time tax paid by the winner to offer commercial services. The
governments reportedly will pay down sovereign debt with that $100 billion windfall.
In other words, low interest rate government debt is being reduced by $100 billion. How? Lower rated
telco's are selling $56 billion in almost junk bonds which will replace the much lower yielding government debt.
Smart, huh? Then the equity market will be raided to pay off another $50 billion in government bonds. That $50
billion drain on the global equity market has already impacted the US and European equity markets.
$50 BILLION TAX ON GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS WILL HURT STOCK PRICES THIS FALL
Remember, that $50 billion will disappear from the equity markets and go into the hands of low risk debt
buyers. In conventional new offerings aggregating $56 billion, most of the cash would go into buying capital
equipment, paying salaries and like. That new spending, in essence, would benefit the overall economy.
In this case, that huge amount of cash will disappear and benefit a few bond buyers.
Yes, European investors are expected by "informed source" to buy about 1/3 the debt and 2/3 the equity.
That still means about $55 billion will leave the US for Euro-land this fall. Will that be enough to turn around
the Euro? The problem for Europe is that the $50 billion they are raising at home will drastically reduce the new
cash available for equities and make it very difficult for those markets to go up from here.
A draining of European equity investors will hurt the US stock market. Without the $130 billion from
European companies and investors buying US stocks, the US market would not be selling just under its all time
high. In fact, without European involvement the US stock market could take a big tumble this fall.
TELCO JUNK DEBT NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS?
No one really knows how many billions of dollars has been raised in the debt markets by telco's to add
broadband capacity. Add technological breakthroughs in using broadband to cram even more content into one
space and we have to be moving to an overcapacity position some time soon. Once all that capacity is added, the
marginal cost of using broadband is almost zero. That means all the gazillions in debt will not be repaid.
COMMSCAN SAYS $4.3 BILLION IN NEW OFFERINGS THIS WEEK, $6 BILLION NEXT
New offerings will resume in full force this week, after a walking start last week when $1.1 billion got sold
Thursday and Friday. CommScan tells us that $4.3 billion of new shares are expected this week and $6 billion
the next. Several are European telco's although the names are not those of the national carriers. Does that mean
that even more broadband capacity is being added?
If all those new offerings do get sold, that would total about $12 billion for this September, roughly equal
with the $12.3 billion sold during September 1999 -- when the market ended the month lower due to Y2K fears.
Then last year during the 10 week prime season between October and the week before Christmas about $63
billion in new offerings got sold, or about $6 a week. That number happens to be in line with the current
pipeline -- but does not include the expected European telco equity sales.
WHO'LL BUY THE $60-$100 BILLION NEW OFFERINGS THIS YEAR?
MARGIN DEBT ROSE $50 BILLION OCT.- DEC. 1999. FOREIGNERS BOUGHT $130 BILLION US SINCE
MAY THIS YEAR.
Last year we expected the stock market to drop in November. Why? The huge new offering calendar was
self-evident. Indeed, our November liquidity number was -$5 billion. Yet the TrimTabs Market Cap rose 3.5%.
What we couldn't see was the surge in margin debt, rising $50 billion between October and December.
This year foreigners pumped in huge sums and helped support the US market. Without those two sources
this year, where will the new money come from?
We don't know.

Все ответы
Интересная статейка попалась про телеком (+) - FXoR on Thu, Sep 21 at 3:56pm


 




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