Ну вот такой сценарий почитай. В целом на сегодня оптимистичный. Там же в конце и соображения по таймингу теракта. А из драматических сценариев мне представляется заслуживающим внимания крах крупных портфелей деривативов, как например у JP Morgan (40 трлн.$), с пугающими последствиями.

From: Bilo Selhi <citadel@adelphia.net>
To: systems-only@markbrown.com <systems-only@markbrown.com>
Date: Wednesday, September 19, 2001, 10:14:54
Subject: SO_long term outlook, follow through...

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Naz:
nazdaq hit our target of 1500 today
which is the 1998 level.
where is now approximately fairly valued
fundamentally.
anything under 1500 would now imply
under valued. although it is not necessary
for naz to continue to come down, because
secular up trend bottoms most of time sit
right on the fair value, the naz can still continue
to come down a bit and flutter around the fv
of 1500 for a month or so.
however the very good news is that the naz
is now about 750 points undervalued relative
to 120 months ( 10 year ) fv, technically.
wtc bombing actually helped the market to
come down, it accelerated it.
please notice that monthly volume has been
dropping considerably every month now for
5 straight months. another indicator that the
market is bottoming out and is getting undervalued
technically.
the system is currently short naz with approx.
300 point profit.

Dow:
dow is on its way to our target of 7800-8000
again twc disaster accelerated the decline.
the dow still has close to 1000 points or so to go before
it becomes attractively under valued technically again.
the ave monthly volume has been dropping
for 6 months now.
the dow system is currently short with approximately
1000 points of profit.

SP:
i never posted monthly sp chart and it's attached.
as you can see the target on the chart is 900-1000
at 1998 levels, the system is short and has about 250
points of profit.
the 120 month 10 year fair value on sp is right on 1000.
we are basically on target minus about 100 points max.

***now an important consideration:
if we continue to come down below the 1998 levels
across all markets, this would signify
a long term bear market in the US economy...
( for now the economy is not in bear market, it's still correcting )
the possible targets then are:
Naz of below 1000
Dow of below 5000,
Sp of below 500,
which is a possibility.

why am i saying that? because technically if we break the
1998 levels ( roughly two years back from the top ) then the fair values
in all markets will begin to drift to the down side for the
US markets. means valuations
themselves will be drifting down continuously.
this would signify about 2+ years of a bear market,
negative growth of the economy ( neg GDP ), higher unemployment,
world wide deflation, massive investment liquidations,
labor market and broad RE market crash are possible.

***SO THE 1998 LEVELS are very important levels to hold
in all three markets. if you remember 1998 was start of the blow off.
Naz 1998 level is: 1500 ( at target now )
Dow 1998 level is about : 7800 ( moving to target )
Sp 1998 level is: just under 1000 ( at target now )
those are also very attractive low risk long term long
entry levels given the fact all three market will be
decently technically under valued and fundamentally
fair valued at those levels...
it's not the end if we go a bit below those levels.

the desc. investment recommendation at this time then:
- get ready for the bottom.
- start picking long options equities, those that hold
the level and have good fundamentals, strong and
uptrending.
- stay out of the dow and equities that correct now,
till dow gets below 8000 level.

the systematic trading recommendation as always to follow
the market with the system, whatever it does, as we don't care
where the bottom is.

the designated ( massive liquidation ) panic levels are
dow < 7500
sp < 900
naz < 1400
at those levels people will start cashing out of their fears.
if downside momentum builds at that time
then we go into the above bear market scenario.

the designated bottom levels are:
dow around 7500-8000
sp around 900-1000
naz - 1400-1500
then it's the time to get in at those levels.

but for now everything is cooling off as expected.
the bottom should be marked by a long range up
day in all three markets with a follow thru day and
and an up week. the investment buy would be a month
up month of at least 5% in all three major markets on
high volume. buying on that day, week, month
is a must.

since we had the biggest bubble in the US history so
far where everything got extremely overvalued and
now we are busted. who to blame?
no one, it's all as it needs to be...we are right on track
of the mighty secular evolutionary spiraling
economic development trend which is always UP.

i will post again when the systems exits their short
positions.

regards.
bilo.
ps. it seems like the terrorists had an economist in
one of their cells, the timing was impeccable.
if the goal was to destabilize the western economy,
it was a close shot.
if this was planned, more attacks may follow here
or in Europe or even in Arab oil producing countries.
the days after the sharp down days might be the target
days... it seems like that next logical step for them is
to hit oil fields or a refinery in one of the arab countries
to destabilize the oil market. this is the consesus now.
i hope this does not happen...
if it was a coincidence we should have a break for
a couple of years during which we can build up our
anti terrorist defense infrastructure world wide.

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